In previous post I had mentioned that overall Market still looks positive and I still feel it is most likely
and ready to test 5350-5402 level in coming weeks and the high was placed at
5394 for the week which is between the range of 5350-5402. During the week index behaved exactly as expected.
Index on Monday morning market opened with gap at 5260 and it made a high of
5378 which was very close to the estimated resistance level and then closed the
week at 5320.
The
weekly chart pattern of Sensex has broken above the large symmetrical triangle
pattern wherein it was consolidating for the past eight months. The 20 week EMA
is getting ready to cross above the 50 week EMA; the ‘golden cross’ will
technically confirm a return to a bull market. The bulls will try to avoid a
repetition of the situation during Mar and Apr ‘12, when the 20 week EMA came
close to the 50 week EMA, but failed to cross above it.
Technical
indicators are looking bullish. The MACD is rising above its signal line in
positive territory. The ROC is positive and is moving above its 10 week MA.
Both the RSI and the Slow Stochastic are above their 50% levels. The top of
18524 should be the next target for the bulls. Crossover above will form a
bullish pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms. If FIIs continue their
buying, this target could be easily achieved.
Economic
growth is slowing down, but not enough to change RBI’s declared policy of restraining
inflation at the cost of growth. There is unlikely to be any interest rate
reduction in the near term. Poor monsoon rains may further add fuel to the
inflation fire. Stock markets may not perform well in a high interest rate
regime. A period of slow growth and high inflation is likely to continue for
some more time.
After
breaking out of eight months of consolidation within the symmetrical triangle
pattern, the daily chart pattern of Nifty quickly pulled back to the top of the
triangle. Such pullbacks are quite common and provide entry opportunities for
those who may have missed the break out.
Technical
indicators are bullish, but three of them (MACD, RSI, slow stochastic) touched lower tops while the
Nifty touched a higher
top. The negative divergences may drop the Nifty back inside the triangle. The
break out above the triangle wasn’t accompanied by significant volumes which raises
questions about the validity of the break out.
All
three EMAs are rising and the Nifty is trading above them. Technically, Nifty
has entered the bull territory. A cross above the Feb ‘12 top of 5630 will put
the bulls back in control. There may be some consolidation before the Nifty
moves up to test its Feb ‘12 top.
Conclusion: Chart patterns of Sensex and Nifty
have broken upwards from prolonged consolidation within symmetrical triangles.
Though the break outs haven’t been strong, such break outs after long
consolidations are often followed by strong up moves that can take the indices
close to their Nov ‘10 peaks. It seems that the bear market may finally be
getting over. On Technical chart Nifty
has almost reached to its upper trading zone and has touched the upper level of
Bollinger Band. It must close above 5400 level if this bullish rally has to
continue. At the moment this looks difficult to cross the strong hurdle of 5402
and we can expect some downside in the coming week. However the upper side seems
restricted at 5500 till the end of August 2012 series. The current data suggests
that NIFTY index will not cross 5500 during this F&O series.
Nifty is moving in rising channel on
Daily, 15 MIN and Hourly charts. So 5290 can provide a strong support for Nifty.
A drop below can take it back to 5247 where one can initiate long with a stop below
5200.
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